10 המניות המומלצות לשנה החדשה

Six months ago, Prof. Amir Barnea assessed Bank Hapoalim (TASE: POLI ) at NIS 16 billion to NIS 17 billion. This weekend the Dankner family closed a deal that evaluated the bank at NIS 15.1 billion. Their major partner in the bank, Shari Arison, thinks that excessive. Meanwhile, Tel Aviv's investors are playing it safe, giving the bank a modest market cap of NIS 7.3 billion.

There are many investors in Hapoalim, each with its own agenda, and each with its own assessment of the bank's worth.

The tangle of interests starts with Hapoalim's market cap, a lowly NIS 7.3 billion. Investors following the deteriorating condition of major borrowers, Israel's economy and that of the bank believe Hapoalim's balance sheets hide major losses on loans. That explains why the bank's market cap has slumped to 47% below the bank's equity.

From the start of 2002, a hole of hundreds of millions of shekels has developed in Israel Salt Industries (TASE: SALT ) balance sheet, a Dankner family company. The hole was created by the growing discrepancy between the record value of the company's 11.6% stake in Bank Hapoalim and the value of the shares on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Salt Industries commissioned a third-party valuation from Prof. Amir Barnea, who in August determined the bank's value at NIS 16-17 billion. His evaluation saved Salt from erasing all its equity in writeoffs.

This weekend, the Dankners agreed on a deal designed to push forward the separation of Nochi Dankner's business from that of the rest of the family, and to advance the takeover of IDB Holding Corporation (TASE: IDBH) and reorganization of the family assets, under the "Ellern deal". For the purpose of this deal, Bank Hapoalim was evaluated at NIS 15.1 billion.

In this case too, with a lower valuation - Salt would have been forced to write off the value of its holding. But Nochi Dankner isn't really going pay for the purchase of Hapoalim stock, because his family will concurrently be buying his holdings in Salt and maybe also in Dor Chemicals (TASE: DORC ). In such a swap, the official price tag attached to Hapoalim is irrelevant.

Shari Arison and Shlomo Nehama, who manages her business in Israel, have declared their readiness to help the Dankner family, the other other major shareholder in Hapoalim, and buy Nochi Dankner's stock. But the Dankners' should know that Arison and Nehama haven't even bought the much cheaper stock they could get on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.

Accountant Avi Berger estimated this weekend that in the long run, the value of the two big banks ¿ Hapoalim and Bank Leumi (TASE: LUMI ) - should be the same as their shareholders equity. Namely, Bank Hapoalim's maximum value is NIS 13.7 billion.

The loan for Salt's acquisition of its stake in Bank Hapoalim was extended five years ago by Leumi. The securities for this loan comprised some of the acquired Hapoalim stock, and land in Atlit and Eilat. Hapoalim's market cap is cardinal to Leumi, which is holding eroded collateral. For a year now Leumi has been pushing Salt to hand over more securities.

For all the confusion, the fog cannot hide the gap between Hapoalim's market cap and its book value in Salt Industries' records. The gap cannot be allowed to remain. The only question is what evaluation of Hapoalim wins the battle of the price tags.